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Discussion in 'The BS Topic' started by Bandit723, Sep 15, 2017.
wonder how they work in cold winter weather?
Almost forgot about this thread. Truthfully, I think the truck excites me as much as the Roadster reveal.
So we've got-
-Day Cab configuration with center seating position- that will take some getting used to.\
-300-500 mile range fully loaded, 40min to recharge 80% with upcoming "Megacharger."
-0-60 in 5sec unloaded, which is LOL ridiculous.
-0-60 in 20sec at 80k gross, which is also LOL ridiculous. I suspect the weirdest thing about this will be not seeing the rear axle and cab violently torque up at every shift.
-65mph up a 5% grade, fully loaded.
-$150k (300mi)-$180k (500mi), probably $200k cost with some options.
These will no doubt be terminal-to-terminal, most likely, but certainly day routes for the time being.
I read today that they now have >200 pre-orders, including Walmart, JB Hunt, and DHL (which is probably meant to jab at Benz).
Put up against a new Freightliner day cab, let's say around $100k, and gets... 7mpg. I'm ball parking. Assume $2.75/gal diesel, which is probably close to current US average. Assume 8c/kWh for electricity on the recharge, these would be industrial/wholesale rates for the terminals.
Let's assume both trucks are run 100k miles/year. That's $39k/year in diesel fuel for the Freightliner, vs. $13k/year in electricity for the Tesla (I guessed 800kWh for the 500mile model). $26k/year in savings evens them up in 4 years. I'm also guessing that brake maintenance will be at half or less the rate of the diesel, due to regenerative braking on the Tesla doing some of that work. No oil changes (I assume there will still be gearbox fluids), no engine maintenance (though I suspect the diesel gets nothing significant in that realm until 500k or so anyway).
If fuel prices go back up (and they will, we've been enjoying low prices for a few years now), electric gets even more attractive.
The truck has better performance specs and a lower price than I thought. And the ability to deliver in a reasonable time (even accounting for Musk's hopeless optimism), unlike Nikola Motors (IMO).
I too am surprised at the relatively low price. I am not as optimistic about delivery times as you are.
Question - if he can deliver the trucks in a "reasonable" timeframe as you suggest - is it at the expense of the Model 3 customers that actually put money down well in advance of any deposits being taken on the semi?
We're talking about millions of dollars of consumer money, with very little effort on the part of Musk, to deliver the product on which that money was accepted by Musk.
The market these would even remotely be ideal for is relatively small. I drive what's considered 'local' and I still hit up in the 400 mile per shift range. Here's one reason one of their trucks won't work in my business.
Our trucks...and 95% of the same field I'm in...run 27/7. When the day driver is done...the night driver is usually sitting and waiting to climb in and start his shift. There's some days we don't even shut the engine off during a shift change. There's no time for 'recharging'...or else somebody would be losing time. No way we could afford 40 min between shifts to recharge the truck to stay on schedule. Time=money. We'd have to have 1 truck per person to put out the same productivity/time frame we achieve now with 2 people per truck. Right now, it takes less than 10 min to refuel for another 500+ mile range.
They could work in beverage delivery, food delivery and possibly package delivery...but not OTR or a full day of heavy-haul. I can't see a volume of demand being enough to keep Tesla in business. A lot of OTR trucks drive in teams. The truck never really stops. There's always somebody fresh to drive, so the rig keeps rolling.
As of now, I can't see our power grid infrastructure being able to handle the load these mega-chargers will require. And where will they put all these mega-chargers? Not every big rig refuels at a truck stop.
On another note, you notice one tiny tidbit spec that hasn't been released. How much do the battery packs for these trucks weigh? I DID read where Siemens is predicting a battery capable of the 500 mile range would weigh around 24 tons. That's HALF the weight of the entire rig. Also, the price tag of one of these battery packs is $120K as of now. I'd wager to say they will somehow weasel their way out of including the battery packs the entire 1 million mile warranty they're boasting. That'd be like a conventional vehicle including the battery in a typical 100K mile warranty we see today. NOBODY includes the battery beyond 3-5 years...for obvious reasons.
I don't think it comes at the expense of Model 3, with the possible exception of the battery pack. The Semi will be a "bespoke" model in comparison to the mass-produced (at some point) Model 3, and they've already proven they can do low volume with Model S and Model X. So the Semi falls into that category, IMO. I suspect they'll only do 1000s/year at most for a few years. And I only mention the battery pack due to the way they're getting their butts kicked on automated assembly in Nevada. Panasonic has a massive backlog of cells waiting for pack assembly there.
No one said that these trucks will fit all scenarios, which is why Walmart ordered 25 initially, instead of 10000. Charging infrastructure will have to be added, and it will be, and it won't be added faster than the grid can keep up, IMO. Interestingly, Tesla is ready to help with that, too, if need be, via onsite Powerpack storage.
Battery weight and price- one can deduce that. Current 100kw pack in the Model S 100D is 1300lb, using 18650 Li-Ion cells. Semi will use their new 2170 cells, which are higher capacity per cell (50%, I think). But let's suppose more aggressive cooling is needed so size/weight per unit is a wash. That puts an 800kWh pack at 10400lbs. 4 motors probably come in at 2000lbs, tops (Model S drivetrain is 400lbs, for instance, so I think I'm being conservative) The cab may end up slightly heavier than current day cabs, but only slightly. 15l diesel at 3000lbs, another 500 in cooling hardware, 13spd, call it 1500 all in, another 2000 in differential, and then 1000 lbs fuel at 100gals including the tank... it's not that far off. As to cost of pack- the $150k-$180k spread for the 300mi/500mi models seems to indicate Tesla is charging $75-100/kWh for the pack. That makes 800kWh $60-80k. Siemens is behind the cost curve. As to warranty- it will be LONG for the early buyers. I can't speak to million miles, but I'd bet that they'll offer 8yrs and 500k miles on the battery & drivetrain, at least. And they will be able to do it because there just won't be that many out there, to start with. If your customers believe you make a decent product and KNOW that you'll stand behind it (and you deliver on both), they'll tolerate some beta-testing on your behalf.
For reference, current Model S/X comes with 8 year, unlimited mile warranty on battery and drivetrain. And there's a crowdsourced Google doc floating around that shows 5-6% battery loss at 100k, 6-8% at 150k. Assuming similar trends in the 2170 cells, the packs will last.
Tesla has to find an answer to the Cobalt (not the car, the mineral...) problem.
When, where and if Musk ever gets his Model 3 into volume production, it just increases the demand for a product that is in short supply. The Tesla Semi will require huge amounts of cobalt for each truck.
I see plenty of delays and price increases in the future.
And Tesla is burning through cash like a drunken sailor:
Tesla is claiming the truck will not experience a break down for 1,000,000 miles. Part of that claim is based on it having no transmission or differentials.
I think one million might be optimistic, but half that, trouble free, probably isn’t.
Anheuser-Busch just ordered 40.
I think even 500K miles is unrealistic. Think of all the parts and systems that are in a vehicle, car or truck. To make statements like it won't have a break down for 1M miles is nothing but false bravado. Tesla has made the statement but I doubt they will put it in the warranty. And if they do it will be very restricted, only on limited parts not the whole truck.
I drove truck and had breakdowns for stupid things. I was once stranded because a relay failed! Think of all the shaking and jarring a truck experiences. Even with air ride they aren't a smooth ride. All those systems will have to live through that. How many times have we seen new cars have problems due to improperly engineered systems? Now multiply that by 100 for a commercial truck.
I think the first trucks that Tesla makes will likely have many teathing problems. They have had problems with the cars and truck take much more punishment. Designing a commercial truck is much more difficult than just upscaling a car.
It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.
I wish International Harvester could provide a breakdown-free truck for 30,000 miles...